BATTLING THE CERTITUDE OF IGNORANCE

At the entrance to the Board Room of a large Indian company are the words 

"In God we trust, all others must bring data"

Senior people at companies adhere to the spirit of this quote or at the least, attempt to adhere to it. Since they are senior, they have a better understanding of different parts of the company. This understanding usually inculcates a balanced, rational view. 

But to get anything done in a company, employees have to work with everyone in the company, not just senior people. Which is when employees contend with the certitude of the ignorant. All of us, are certain about several things, even while we may have little data or information to support our view. For instance, we question decisions made by the Prime Minister or explain, in minute detail, what Virendar Sehwag is doing wrong at the crease even while we have no information or understanding of the context in which the Prime Minister or Virendar Sehwag operate in. This certitude, based on ignorance, helps us have a lively, healthy social life. But when this trait is extended into work life, it  becomes difficult to get any thing done.  

To illustrate: last week, in a meeting, I made a point about the level of usage of our Learning Management Systems. My point was dismissed by a co-worker who went on to state, vehemently, that no one uses our Learning Management System. Since I had a report with me (from Google Analytics) that in the previous month, we had 7 million page views on the Learning Management System, I was puzzled. So the following conversation ensued. 

 

Me: "Can you share a report with me that says no one uses our Learning Management System?" 

Co-worker :"I don't have a report but I am sure" 

and then added: "Do you have a report?"

Me: "Yes, I am using Google Analytics and I am quoting from the report"

There are several such examples at work, where the one with information has to convince the one with an opinion based on ignorance. It is not an even playing field at all. Startups which have pitched to  investors face the same challenge. A startup, founded by first-time entrepreneurs, most times, ends up making the first  pitch to someone junior at a VC firm. And this junior person is tasked with evaluating business plans for a variety of businesses, though he or she  has never run a business. Their job requires them to be certain while being deeply ignorant. 

(The image is from the Economist Country Reports for iPad. Incidentally, the death rate in Ukraine and Russia is higher than the death rate in Burundi)

One way to battle this that has worked well for me, is to look at the person expressing the opinion in the eye, pause and say "How do you know that?". Almost always, the person pauses and then in a more deferential tone says "Actually, I am not sure if I am right. Is there a report you can share which supports your point?". After which the conversation tends to be more rational. 

How have you overcome the certitude of ignorance?